Friday, January 24, 2020

How Transmissible and How Deadly is the Latest Coronavirus Pandemic?

The CDC's website is in the process of updating information.

Is this one of those cases where authoritarianism goes in the favor of the species? China is rapidly shutting down all egress from Wuhan and engaging in massive quarantining efforts there, as they have done with past epidemics.

But since the virus has spread to other countries already, including America, pronouncements like Lipkin's "The horse is already out of the barn" are almost certainly correct.

Efforts are underway to develop a vaccine. Did you invest in any Inovio stock lately?

If, as early reports suggest, the elderly and immunocompromised are most at risk of the worst consequences and will have the highest mortality rate, it might make sense to encourage our loved ones who fall into these categories to try to get any necessary doctor's visits taken care of as soon as possible. I'm not referring to the flu shot, which is ineffective against this novel strain and probably confers no protective benefit in this instance. I'm referring to the risk of exposure which will probably skyrocket once the infection becomes entrenched throughout America. Maybe it won't be the situation, but looking at the latest updates from China with drastically upscaled numbers, it seems likely to be the case.

It would be prudent if physicians could prescribe maintenance medications without seeing patients where it is possible and not risky. I mean during epidemics. How is it in the interest of an elderly person to come sit in a waiting room full of a potentially deadly virus with a high rate of transmission.

For prophylactic purposes, I wonder if lysine would help? I know it's been largely discredited as actually killing many of the viruses it has been reported in the past to kill. But it does lower arginine levels and that is probably what's responsible for the antiviral effects many claim to have witnessed across a spectrum of viruses. And aspirin's antiviral effects (suppressing viral replication) have been reported in the scientific literature recently. It's not just an antipyretic and analgesic. It might have a prophylactic usefulness apart from the cardiovascular benefits.

Won't it be nice when the future is vegetarian or vegan and epidemics like these can become an extreme rarity? Because once again animal "agriculture" (euphemism for pointless torture) is the origin. Humans should be able to evolve away from predation and animal-based diets and decreased epidemiological load will be a great benefit of that.

If you want to see the GATTACA sequencing of the ugly bug, it's all over the internet. Early on this was posted but there's much more now from many different sources (countries).

I was checking in with Laurie Garrett's Twitter or the latest updates. I know if anybody is going to do a great job of digesting the info as it breaks, it is she.It is really alarming to see how quickly it is spreading and she's pretty much compiling the epidemic's updates in real time.

And I do hope the reproduction number on this early prediction is wrong. Scary stuff.









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